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mlsMoneyline.2026-05-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED b9244688

Portland Timbers ML

Sporting Kansas City @ Portland Timbers

-200risk1u→win0.5u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

1u

Odds

-200

Closing

-215

CLV

+2.38%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betmgm)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLS Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Portland Timbers priced at **66.7% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BETMGM -200 ➋ FANATICS -200 ➌ BOVADA -202

Line movement

-200-215-0.03 dec
Related Picks (12)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-215
1.4651
Delta
+2.38%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#654
UUIDd0fb7e61-0f44-43f5-a538-e25914bdd3c8
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-10 02:00 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb9244688e31dde0d46e2e76bfa5da028f8e42de0a3eeb1464c29a2294a3f1a05
Closing line-215 captured 2026-05-10 02:31 UTC
CLV delta+2.38%
Closing hash658f9febf69d1dbdaa3cedc2c30e28302ed57317d9c5c1c2bb9b30e6ed313a00

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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