Portland Timbers -0.25
Sporting Kansas City @ Portland Timbers
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 74.7% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (12)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#655
UUID5b956ede-c557-43b0-bca9-721837999180
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-10 02:00 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:40 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa9228b74e215595e53116d47fff00899e238409462baee06c26760c2384dfbf
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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