Portland Timbers -0.25
Sporting Kansas City @ Portland Timbers
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 74.7% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Audit trail
Pick ID#655
UUID5b956ede-c557-43b0-bca9-721837999180
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-10 02:00 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa9228b74e215595e53116d47fff00899e238409462baee06c26760c2384dfbf
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