Over 2.5
Sporting Kansas City @ Portland Timbers
Edge
Friendly alt over at 73.5% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (12)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#656
UUID73c208ec-a6f0-4694-9ff2-676411bad947
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-10 02:00 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbd6501baca8c0ae347a66f0c6c47bd4ce8dfa7ab211d1b472560bd9ab5d33c54
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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