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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2e98f936

Tatsuro Taira ML

Joshua Van @ Tatsuro Taira

-150risk1u→win0.67u
LOSS

Stake

1u

Odds

-150

Closing

-155

CLV

+1.31%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: bovada)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Tatsuro Taira priced at **60.0% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BOVADA -150 ➋ BETRIVERS -152 ➌ FANDUEL -154
  • 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Tatsuro Taira · **18-1-0**: 67" / 70" reach / 26y / 125lb • Joshua Van · **16-2-0**: 65" / 65" reach / 24y / 125lb _"The Fearless"_ 📏 Tatsuro Taira owns a 5.0" reach edge — striker game tilts their way

Line movement

-150-155-0.02 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-150
1.6667
Closing
-155
1.6452
Delta
+1.31%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#657
UUID390b6f9b-0795-487c-8778-afb6402b626a
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-10 02:25 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2e98f93677ca559137e7c8c2ab7240699fc7fb7b101e5791b55b3419056a0ced
Closing line-155 captured 2026-05-10 02:45 UTC
CLV delta+1.31%
Closing hashebd3e6be7cc4dd0ed758078567f0602da58fea9de1e6226f0aa01927309df1b5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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