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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 24472fb8

Anthony Seigler Under 1.5 Total Bases

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +22.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 8108f9)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+55.9% vs league avg over 217 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Fenway Park: 13 mph wind blowing OUT (W): ball carries, HR-friendly; hot (91F): ball carries.

Line movement

-170-1700.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1757
UUID65dc6c90-42bb-4c5d-a65d-afc4ab55f788
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-08-09 16:20 UTC
Graded2026-08-09 21:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824724:2026-08-09T17:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash24472fb8fd363c333ea518cfd68f57761151dee6099d8b7b9abad74f33547726
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-09 16:34 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash0b8af0000eee0586d43a10fb84b39dee12fa61c38edf553e63a352ea7c025168

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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