Drew Anderson Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Edge
Empirical 98.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +27.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 5d7fff)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Detroit Tigers11
Minnesota Twins6
Winner: Detroit Tigers · 2026-09-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#6612
UUIDcad0be4f-e7d2-4ddc-a926-1c6458748d34
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-02 14:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-03 05:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash53c2e8562fbdbf9630d9d08d633f0235f118c90fc1084421c00a96598670fb1f
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.5% hashed1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close61.7% closed1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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