Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e3e15cc8

JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

-180risk0.14u→win0.08u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 97.5% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +25.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres3
Cincinnati Reds7
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-09-02
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#6613
UUIDa1a6da0b-aa40-42e4-a4cf-0b33e5b2f602
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-02 14:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-02 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe3e15cc829b4d27d03f198083a5dd245564add4bfaddf9f2794ddb9bdc101376
Closing line-180 captured 2026-09-02 15:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash3977912508235b12037a472965c84eda288c26e872c488406166fb2cc1711552

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801