Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 99.5% over last 5 games vs 70.1% implied → +9.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +9.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+24.5% vs league avg over 271 games)
- 99.5% over last 5 games
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#682
UUID4b02677f-832a-44cc-8d74-76e78ab4065f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:35 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6a40f7d3911fc9f4324727fb5bd3fecfc6e52a775583446a1c2dd137310b5f3d
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Why this receipt is trustable
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