Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Total Bases
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
-245LOSS
Edge
Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 71.0% implied → +9.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#683
UUID3efbf6c8-c365-440f-8d09-d191d39a061c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:35 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash68470fe19678bf79b3f369f9dd98937da39aca2b4fc9879f3982d527b713e5e7
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