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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5778d9d5

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists

Atlanta Dream @ Las Vegas Aces

-170risk0.21u→win0.12u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-170

Closing

-164

CLV

-1.34%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +30.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +30.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-14.7% vs league avg over 53 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-170-164+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
-1.34%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1800
UUID6dcba2e0-6fd8-43be-bb90-64b762b84601
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-18 20:40 UTC
Graded2026-08-19 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5778d9d5be74f5785a219fc2e69864637f593b438a2a0397433e77fe1c023ac3
Closing line-164 captured 2026-08-18 23:53 UTC
CLV delta-1.34%
Closing hashd1d295160bb39ddf5a7b27f738952998f0077973917fb8cbdbc6cfef3143f6ca

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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