Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 09d19da4

Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

-180risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +21.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
St. Louis Cardinals4
Philadelphia Phillies6
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-08-23
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1826
UUID71ca7549-9258-40e5-82f5-e12569182c35
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-23 15:38 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 21:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash09d19da498fc245474525f4c6655f408fbdce0ba60410bb0582058c0561143aa
Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-23 16:15 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash0a382ed0766d075f68f5a9e8322b613185d02fe2f68e3f821b6eaa1d2fa2ac9c

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801