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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 05612300

Colin Rea Under 5.5 Strikeouts

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

-170risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.7% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +20.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees2
Chicago Cubs1
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1711
UUID794bfc60-12ed-4805-99ad-1564e5693536
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 22:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash056123004224da1416a9052225338aed4082f3b7670183c92cd40638d7722dea
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-02 16:50 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashd7d4881d20f628c0148f83e03d76778e873b6ed930ae85257f84a404072ae3a1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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