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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c45c2678

Ben Williamson Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

-220risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-220

Closing

-225

CLV

+0.70%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 68.8% implied → +10.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox0
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-220
1.4545
Closing
-225
1.4444
Delta
+0.70%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1701
UUID84f9f8f8-83e1-46f7-81e3-a62b53d1dd7f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 02:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc45c2678fe4972372f2ce4d78053107cb2f09b70b61a064ec33d464d6790c356
Closing line-225 captured 2026-08-01 18:52 UTC
CLV delta+0.70%
Closing hashea5331538b931d2b61cd29984aa592ed37e64d54c92a2a9f295f54dd6606c43b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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