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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8b419198

Michael Harris II Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (Game 1)

-220risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-220

Closing

-225

CLV

+0.70%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 68.8% implied → +10.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +10.6pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • Bayesian-shrunk to 75.2%

Line movement

-220-225-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-220
1.4545
Closing
-225
1.4444
Delta
+0.70%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1645
UUID8521a6c8-aff7-42a8-9f1f-f8c596772330
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-07-29 16:40 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 23:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823596:2026-07-29T17:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8b4191985024d847999cf9948549c9d278a38af00a885d84781016984a669120
Closing line-225 captured 2026-07-29 16:50 UTC
CLV delta+0.70%
Closing hashbc079b5926c05e9dc3d76acbec5df10d5a13b43153818a049725c652d90c34f1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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