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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7ab31cf3

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

-179risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-179

Closing

-179

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +22.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs19
Seattle Mariners2
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-08-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-179
1.5587
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1828
UUID8800ab55-dba2-410a-ade4-f9cab518defa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-23 15:38 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7ab31cf3c209695fb67280d7e2b91787af06c7c092265bd78f631bbfd73328b3
Closing line-179 captured 2026-08-23 18:49 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash78425985aa73024640c675afca5e368ad7e757b3fc141826d50318a35b2477e5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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