Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7a024a95

Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

-175risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-175

Closing

-190

CLV

+2.96%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +21.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros2
Philadelphia Phillies1
Winner: Houston Astros · 2026-09-10
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+2.96%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8960
UUIDead82cf6-29bc-441d-818e-f36959c655c1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-10 14:17 UTC
Graded2026-09-10 23:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7a024a95551c02df7ae25c477e57c9c317fb41eccba430707c89d8009a23bb27
Closing line-190 captured 2026-09-10 15:38 UTC
CLV delta+2.96%
Closing hash71dcaeb290d1d553be9e3b9bab078f972e0c0288685a0a631036a736086272c4

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801