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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5739d029

Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-165

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.2% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +21.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 28a7c9)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Colorado Rockies3
New York Yankees10
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-09-10
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#9016
UUID30a00fac-6f8f-428b-90d3-ba4882d7cddc
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-10 18:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-11 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5739d029e2af2ade5dd578ed8cac79837e85595294749075105a6f4d69528dd4
Closing line-165 captured 2026-09-10 21:38 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashafef54bc597425893160105cb88d495d719e3ff069a57f55e02f8b192da6fd60

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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