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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fa598097

Luis Castillo Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Seattle Mariners @ LA Dodgers

-190risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-190

Closing

-181

CLV

-1.69%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +14.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 7783d5)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners7
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-07-28
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-181
1.5525
Delta
-1.69%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1612
UUID8ccd9b35-b567-459d-a9cb-9241771b3a9a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:45 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfa598097f8fbe2c983174b3f32260cc2e495b1b58b9f1254fce02a728e660f13
Closing line-181 captured 2026-07-29 00:50 UTC
CLV delta-1.69%
Closing hash991218aed1347b5c69b85312d2e0d792a7f6ab81661fd4a83177b762842af37b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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