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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8c7d6ecc

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists

Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces

-217risk0.2u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.2u

Odds

-217

Closing

-249

CLV

+4.23%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 68.5% implied → +24.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-0.2% vs league avg over 70 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-217-249-0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-217
1.4608
Closing
-249
1.4016
Delta
+4.23%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1590
UUID8f672d42-13f0-4187-a7de-26f38ae95493
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8c7d6ecc976ff936931913e08af5b3a134a7053b4af4fd9731e405a1f4967b3f
Closing line-249 captured 2026-07-29 00:35 UTC
CLV delta+4.23%
Closing hash52addd2ede9bbe14888841560b2bc4e6f4218e053ae8a4d1b3bda51d63c1fa3b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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