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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED aeaab9d9

Samad Taylor Over 0.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.12%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 8 games vs 62.3% implied → +12.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 8 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres2
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.12%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1192
UUID90688d20-2c35-445d-b8eb-2824128b7dc5
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaeaab9d95b66fb190c44cf6eb035c850e3abe6ee77965a0fb135000fa599dc3a
Closing line-170 captured 2026-06-16 22:17 UTC
CLV delta+1.12%
Closing hash858e8b4c3addeb8fc9dc25caffe61811e76c6d7e7cb1ad8c0436ac555b5f1432

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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