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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 10ceab8c

Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

-164risk0.18u→win0.11u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-164

Closing

-154

CLV

-2.40%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +26.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins2
Philadelphia Phillies8
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-154
1.6494
Delta
-2.40%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1188
UUID97586ea4-b1b2-40a2-a5f5-3ee88c0f66d0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash10ceab8cc6d8043051c6b6e30e20972023b2de7372ddb2646a7597f2c25cfdf8
Closing line-154 captured 2026-06-16 21:11 UTC
CLV delta-2.40%
Closing hashe9b578bda84bf69e5f2759e629b728dd14c5f07451eb535b8e4e68a2c6cdb7cd

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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