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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-10-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0524d522

Jo Adell Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +17.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox3
Cleveland Guardians0
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-10-03
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
40.0%
2-3
ROI
-30.20%
-0.19u
CLV avg
+1.95%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#14087
UUID97e74a8f-d373-4c5b-82f2-908c55e86993
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-10-03 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-10-03 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0524d522b26b9d7b569f47c028950c69ee98aa75df7a9d998530191be1c714ef
Closing line-170 captured 2026-10-03 15:44 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash09c3184d7c4151944f33c8dc145dc6895841780b67e434ae512dc61dd5c80347

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.2% hashed
    1,374 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.7% closed
    1,373 settled picks · 65.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public1 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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