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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 459714b3

Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

-165risk0.18u→win0.11u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-165

Closing

-160

CLV

-1.17%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +26.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins0
Philadelphia Phillies7
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-15
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1176
UUID9f27a35c-b528-40bf-b71e-238c6cda3db6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-15 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-16 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash459714b3e27e1387fc4c5b1d21437a26344bea73818e6b52745cd0368cd31d29
Closing line-160 captured 2026-06-15 21:11 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hash1591256d72bf89a744265fce8da4182ff684c5b4800e38a8dcbbefe47afdb085

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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