Gabby Williams Over 14.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx @ Golden State Valkyries
Edge
Empirical 78.6% over last 14 games vs 62.3% implied → +15.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +15.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (-1.4% vs league avg over 119 games)
- 78.6% over last 14 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1216
UUIDac60ae7d-4360-448c-a081-15fca1f3b438
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfb98dee1ec58bcd22a1e85a037e92b5f953019523b0164465ff20aad762aaae6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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