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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2a7bc4f6

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits

CHI White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

-172risk0.15u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-172

Closing

-173

CLV

+0.21%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 63.2% implied → +21.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox7
Detroit Tigers5
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-08-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-172
1.5814
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+0.21%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1792
UUIDacf7c36c-e3e1-47ff-8c70-870b69ef7142
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-16 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-08-16 21:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2a7bc4f6d5bcb55fee7b56df5b9320d53ca4005ef1f7622ea3e87fa88e18c30c
Closing line-173 captured 2026-08-16 16:11 UTC
CLV delta+0.21%
Closing hashca12875ea3e351ac1f6ff0edea81c33085afdba2a073da6d14c04a6822a9e068

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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