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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b1c615be

Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Total Bases

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-180risk0.22u→win0.12u

WIN

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +35.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: f1bab8)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+35.1pt EV vs implied
Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+32.5% vs league avg over 174 games)
99.9% over last 15 games

Line movement

-180-1800.00 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window

Picks

15

Settled

13

Hit rate

66.7%

8-4

ROI

-1.07%

-0.02u

CLV avg

+0.35%

n=11

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

•Colorado Rockies ML@ +2852026-09-09 •Colorado Rockies ML@ +2772026-09-09 LT.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits@ -1642026-09-09 LColorado Rockies ML@ +2012026-09-09 WJake McCarthy Over 0.5 Hits@ -1732026-09-08 LColorado Rockies ML@ +2652026-09-08 VColorado Rockies ML@ +2482026-09-07 WNolan Gorman Under 0.5 batter_singles@ -1652026-09-05 LBryce Eldridge Over 0.5 Hits@ -1642026-08-29 LArizona Diamondbacks ML@ -1122026-08-27

Same model

WDillon Dingler Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1702026-09-09 WNolan Gorman Under 0.5 batter_singles@ -1652026-09-05 LDrew Anderson Under 15.5 Outs Recorded@ -1652026-09-02 LJJ Bleday Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1802026-09-02 WChase Burns Over 14.5 Outs Recorded@ -1802026-08-30

CLV math

Posted

-180

1.5556

Closing

-180

1.5556

Delta

0.00%

posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1758

UUIDaf70fef3-a905-4620-987a-e6b97e2ccc11

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-08-10 21:12 UTC

Graded2026-08-11 05:05 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hashb1c615be127b0e11dd2bb5f4ea845bf4b06149fac4a811415cb2cdb647d415db

Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-11 00:21 UTC

CLV delta+0.00%

Closing hash7e323a57fb739e0bcadafc7964f88979c27cb143b214a3bd78eb3be3b41d0564

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close62.0% closed
1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public14 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801