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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 43de2396

Natisha Hiedeman Over 14.5 Points

Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty

-182risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-182

Closing

-189

CLV

+1.33%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.5% implied → +15.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+33.2% vs league avg over 72 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-182-189-0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-182
1.5495
Closing
-189
1.5291
Delta
+1.33%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1725
UUIDc7961180-59ca-48bc-bd7a-afa2b0183740
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-03 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-04 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash43de2396567a528774e3e820d8ce1be6c52febe7c59c05ab34d72c4a0e8c744b
Closing line-189 captured 2026-08-03 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+1.33%
Closing hashb69c819d1c8f549bf6a6466269b9fb8fb9cfb36c11de7467b2ada33455a456b9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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