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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6c7874a3

Donovan Walton Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-179risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-179

Closing

-185

CLV

+1.18%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +9.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels3
Arizona Diamondbacks4
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-06-15
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+1.18%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1178
UUIDcff2fd71-fe68-468f-947a-07f66108f13f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-15 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-16 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6c7874a3a30f7956404ce664d41cb3495e72409091d1cb945757dc398ebd70bd
Closing line-185 captured 2026-06-16 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+1.18%
Closing hashb319ac9c1117153e7c54493b63d236dcf677f465d43d3d0605d71ce7437f7325

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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