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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 950649f4

Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 Total Bases

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-155

CLV

-5.45%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.2% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +14.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +14.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-0.8% vs league avg over 295 games)
  • 79.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-180-155+0.09 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-155
1.6452
Delta
-5.45%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1086
UUIDd71cbd73-651a-44d6-af4f-e4689e0295f8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-02 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash950649f4f33bfdff99ea2e27a1b1308a0f45f6f77b880b6d8c30a52f942a9276
Closing line-155 captured 2026-06-01 21:16 UTC
CLV delta-5.45%
Closing hash88c373df5b18842709f9a6f5afc9ef9e93836148c31eaf64bdaa6ee9d9641455

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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