Monique Akoa Makani Over 8.5 Points
Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury
Edge
Empirical 85.7% over last 7 games vs 63.6% implied → +10.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +10.3pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+1.3% vs league avg over 107 games)
- 85.7% over last 7 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1137
UUIDe31df4ef-ad4c-4c56-9866-c23ecba39afa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-12 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8a42a1ae0233b16d88c7b6360a6f499f9a5b1b49ca81916e5d5d6b3ed268fb3c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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