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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6e2ec409

Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 Hits

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians

-173risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-173

Closing

-166

CLV

-1.52%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +22.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 2822db)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates7
Cleveland Guardians1
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-07-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-166
1.6024
Delta
-1.52%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1539
UUIDe61ca475-97e6-497d-8c2f-ff576cf02c24
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 00:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6e2ec4095a78ad3ff5c27a213dbc377714ce109917cd957477baf1d16e88f8f8
Closing line-166 captured 2026-07-19 16:10 UTC
CLV delta-1.52%
Closing hashda4fb6d93cfca233a96624349bcda599e72c4a2bdc35239713efccd1d90774a9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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