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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 38b29939

Aliyah Boston Over 7.5 Rebounds

New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever

-181risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-181

Closing

-195

CLV

+2.62%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.4% implied → +15.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+10.8% vs league avg over 104 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-181-195-0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-181
1.5525
Closing
-195
1.5128
Delta
+2.62%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1480
UUIDe882338b-5691-4836-8ed0-7870c84460ff
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash38b29939eaa75a56e7c658e735636657945d3864a3beb1b3b8f31d4b0e660edc
Closing line-195 captured 2026-07-18 22:36 UTC
CLV delta+2.62%
Closing hashc0a9bb0c1f55d2c47bdd81549e004a990c021883fffbd345010a72c72b24d40a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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