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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e9d2a8ba

Steven Kwan Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

-208risk0.15u→win0.07uVOIDESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-208

Closing

-211

CLV

+0.46%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 67.5% implied → +19.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +19.1pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • L10 hit-rate: 80% (8/10)

Line movement

-208-211-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-208
1.4808
Closing
-211
1.4739
Delta
+0.46%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1568
UUIDea76cf00-ea13-4ba8-bf83-580d72c36dde
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-27 20:00 UTC
Graded2026-07-28 16:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe9d2a8ba372490c3f9e47f5081924e60744ab13c5f87b9e34673dd5b5d17f6b6
Closing line-211 captured 2026-07-27 21:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.46%
Closing hashdf54819917237cda6c47bca2bc6dbf3c3afbffec9ada9d5cce531bd988bab3e6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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