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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED abd6f203

Drew Anderson Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

-180risk0.15u→win0.08u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 98.0% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +25.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Detroit Tigers1
Kansas City Royals3
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-08-22
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1819
UUID00a124e3-e5c3-4fb7-a802-11d9a674ae79
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-22 15:41 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:03 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashabd6f20352c989af2ac00f75785a1093879a20f0a863fbc3c04929dab179fb0f
Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-22 21:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash6c71860f3ad8c6cc45e3902e825a2d70444837268c2420074616150443ab0a46

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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