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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 74b2ad97

OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks

-167risk0.12uwin0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-167

Closing

-162

CLV

-1.14%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +22.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 176c72)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #16 vs this prop (-14.2% vs league avg over 142 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-167-162+0.02 dec
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-1.14%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1001
UUID725cfc9e-d3b9-47a5-9c92-84e140f00ad9
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 06:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash74b2ad97362ca496994ef9d3b484b07796cd6bb9fd2deff9cedfe72a3f30b418
Closing line-162 captured 2026-05-21 22:40 UTC
CLV delta-1.14%
Closing hash92248d49ea82c646ac15dd26c0d4a3dc6a0c455ca21a0dcadc2d406b92093ba0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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