OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
-167risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +22.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 176c72)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +22.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #16 vs this prop (-14.2% vs league avg over 142 games)
- 80.0% over last 15 games
Line movement
-167-162+0.02 decRelated Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-1.14%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1001
UUID725cfc9e-d3b9-47a5-9c92-84e140f00ad9
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 06:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash74b2ad97362ca496994ef9d3b484b07796cd6bb9fd2deff9cedfe72a3f30b418
Closing line-162 captured 2026-05-21 22:40 UTC
CLV delta-1.14%
Closing hash92248d49ea82c646ac15dd26c0d4a3dc6a0c455ca21a0dcadc2d406b92093ba0
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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