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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-20🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2ca4d597

Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 Rebounds

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks

-146risk0.17u→win0.12u
WIN

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-146

Closing

-210

CLV

+14.14%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 59.3% implied → +30.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +30.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-13.1% vs league avg over 152 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-146-210-0.21 dec
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-146
1.6849
Closing
-210
1.4762
Delta
+14.14%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#995
UUID6d8b5087-3f0f-42a6-a787-cf9e282acefa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-20 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 06:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2ca4d597676654a2ab0fe44161378cb62564ab43345d8772484431c2007056bf
Closing line-210 captured 2026-05-21 22:40 UTC
CLV delta+14.14%
Closing hashf83f74821a4fb82a9133a5db99d9632181363a0d2ad56e780cc3b411488b729c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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