Devin Vassell Under 15.5 Points
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.5% implied → +20.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 5da215)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
New York Knicks94
San Antonio Spurs90
Winner: New York Knicks · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-174
1.5747
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.22%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1150
UUID807a02a0-a534-4c7f-abd7-24d7e75e8b4d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa4f2b552120b40f4c45c70210a07a8969e626defe352deadbe3bee62e95d495
Closing line-185 captured 2026-06-13 23:11 UTC
CLV delta+2.22%
Closing hash67e0d7f1e9a378e7508710d50507bdff664c217b8e1f00f43ade9c557073bc78
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Why this receipt is trustable
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