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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 672bf405

Stephon Castle Under 5.5 Rebounds

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs

-166risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-166

Closing

-190

CLV

+4.99%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +15.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+0.1% vs league avg over 155 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-166-190-0.08 dec
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+4.99%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1079
UUIDbee7189c-a700-40c2-bef8-891173621316
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash672bf405478e3b04a7bde7eb8935194f4b4c7906d0611355f7ac33140b111e3d
Closing line-190 captured 2026-06-04 00:13 UTC
CLV delta+4.99%
Closing hash6636e8bd18f97fab5050a2e041b0c1a27584bb144c14f40e1793950e99efa561

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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