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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b8eb5310

Konnor Griffin Over 0.5 Hits

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-192

CLV

+3.33%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #21 vs this prop (-4.1% vs league avg over 280 games)
  • Opposing starter Bubba Chandler blowing up: 7.1 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.7 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-175-192-0.05 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-192
1.5208
Delta
+3.33%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1010
UUID7a165d1d-7f94-4c07-9c6a-4a7118f6a57f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb8eb531041a41bf6085a5cbe527aede0180213cff5ccca28d550c36515b60382
Closing line-192 captured 2026-05-22 21:38 UTC
CLV delta+3.33%
Closing hash8171ebbec77e679378f51a74bec86bd84203eb54a8d357b4e9adea25a37fba7f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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