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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 08f96245

Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-172

CLV

+1.79%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 62.1% implied → +12.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #22 vs this prop (-4.5% vs league avg over 291 games)
  • 99.9% over last 5 games

Line movement

-164-172-0.03 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-172
1.5814
Delta
+1.79%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1008
UUID271beeab-3a0d-4e94-be90-6c3ca09750e1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash08f9624516673599a58a9e496de51f97c6bde2c2f15c20c07bd8ae98a5286ddc
Closing line-172 captured 2026-05-22 21:12 UTC
CLV delta+1.79%
Closing hashd9b30c8333c889f554857a3d71533b4edd108f633d411ab5dc84baf69478685d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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