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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 89652b13

Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Total Bases

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-238

CLV

+9.53%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 64.3% implied → +11.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #25 vs this prop (-9.8% vs league avg over 260 games)
  • 99.9% over last 5 games

Line movement

-180-238-0.14 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-238
1.4202
Delta
+9.53%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1009
UUID7b65f520-b6dc-4cac-9828-8f9e9577b930
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash89652b13fc4a0bb2411bf65aa712603cb370569ded8ab5a194dc0582f0952702
Closing line-238 captured 2026-05-22 21:36 UTC
CLV delta+9.53%
Closing hash8dc56aedbeb6bd7df8485321aea1c4d328bd66918185ebcfabcc74b09663d746

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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