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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED efed3144

Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 Hits

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

-179risk0.15u→win0.08u
LOSS

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-179

Closing

-172

CLV

-1.44%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +22.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+20.4% vs league avg over 259 games)
  • 86.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-179-172+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-172
1.5814
Delta
-1.44%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1012
UUIDa87aec85-7598-439e-84e1-a2d77eced853
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashefed31444aef462c22a16c0754d87a478b32d0e1c08a6dd3ca282d44ba88bd76
Closing line-172 captured 2026-05-22 21:46 UTC
CLV delta-1.44%
Closing hash27ef69c7ebd46865b472dea979ff98539758be26b8d7f28936073e00e469f446

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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