Devin Vassell Under 15.5 Points
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
-178risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +26.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 8e882e)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +26.9pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-7.9% vs league avg over 176 games)
- 86.7% over last 15 games
Line movement
-178-170+0.03 decRelated Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.66%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1034
UUID39b639ba-3b0c-45c9-b7c7-8c5942bd5e7a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash51c866b734990f9a99f1a0cf11fb183dc739ce7b31712d91f4a37d95a3fa74c8
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-26 23:11 UTC
CLV delta-1.66%
Closing hash638d9758c605c5b2abd5c01af06d342d4e478bf6985388a212b93c531d61749c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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