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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 51c866b7

Devin Vassell Under 15.5 Points

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

-178risk0.16uwin0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-178

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.66%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +26.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 8e882e)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +26.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-7.9% vs league avg over 176 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-178-170+0.03 dec
Related Picks (15)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.66%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1034
UUID39b639ba-3b0c-45c9-b7c7-8c5942bd5e7a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash51c866b734990f9a99f1a0cf11fb183dc739ce7b31712d91f4a37d95a3fa74c8
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-26 23:11 UTC
CLV delta-1.66%
Closing hash638d9758c605c5b2abd5c01af06d342d4e478bf6985388a212b93c531d61749c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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