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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0e172c17

Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 Rebounds

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

-175risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-175

Closing

-165

CLV

-2.16%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +22.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers) (ref: 47485c)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (-3.0% vs league avg over 160 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-165+0.03 dec
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-2.16%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1067
UUID8a6d86b8-8ddb-4a02-b246-497f53a6da60
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-31 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0e172c17e9bcbc9dae48981c1929f72aae5848b1606172cdaf3831c3629b0e8b
Closing line-165 captured 2026-05-30 22:40 UTC
CLV delta-2.16%
Closing hasha9f84a4a0371fbc8923d720026ec8278221bafce8de5ddef91d5af6c848e3154

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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