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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 22a69b2b

Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Hits

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-163

CLV

-0.46%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 74.1% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (+0.0% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • 74.1% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-163+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-163
1.6135
Delta
-0.46%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1048
UUIDa9c2905b-f394-4aa2-b33d-32a45a37f731
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash22a69b2b6fbe0e8bb6efa56187dc63a5dac0d6810501115d423b9077ca23075c
Closing line-163 captured 2026-05-26 22:11 UTC
CLV delta-0.46%
Closing hash880aeeaa672c12b84c48f614b52dd041e76a674dac4a15b2fc01aa3112ae92b3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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