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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6ec32512

Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 Hits

Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-194

CLV

+6.22%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 74.4% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +12.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+14.1% vs league avg over 271 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Wrigley Field: 15 mph wind blowing IN (ENE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-164-194-0.09 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-194
1.5155
Delta
+6.22%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1103
UUID8db1c4aa-e3ae-49a2-bc75-69ca374976d0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6ec32512ec37534704bfe81e3988a135fee97cd7355ebfd17cd892d4717cef08
Closing line-194 captured 2026-06-02 22:36 UTC
CLV delta+6.22%
Closing hash87a339e94fd215a8116e34e758f0c0694113d2bbdc23fcdfa302f76819c149a0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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