Miami Marlins -1
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 51.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Miami Marlins → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants3
Miami Marlins6
Winner: Miami Marlins · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-104
1.9615
Closing
+143
2.4300
Delta
-19.28%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1244
UUIDdd8a4f4f-135f-47e3-a424-6566bc3dad4c
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 18:56 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 23:25 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823854:2026-06-20T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash49d102438be74d39ddc9d238562b12b1df629aab3f8a2492d2c86c8eb1d45cf2
Closing line+143 captured 2026-06-20 20:11 UTC
CLV delta-19.28%
Closing hash2630a1e63616c601811c67d21881e911bc427468afab2e0690030a6ea1779ed6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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