Under 9
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Edge
Friendly alt under at 62.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 62.3% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung (ref: fca3d2)
Risk
Game context
Line movement
-245-109+0.51 decModel Record (30d)
sharp-stub-v0-alt-totalTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
3
Hit rate
33.3%
1-2
ROI
-47.06%
-1.06u
CLV avg
-11.78%
n=3
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
CLV math
Posted
-245
1.4082
Closing
-109
1.9174
Delta
-26.56%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1245
UUID6f4323df-7a6e-4e09-b770-3fe03ba50f74
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 18:56 UTC
Gradedpending
Lineup confirmmlb:823854:2026-06-20T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger100% hashed1,065 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close40.1% closed1,038 settled picks · 40.1% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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