Under 9
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Edge
Friendly alt under at 62.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 62.3% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung (ref: fca3d2)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants3
Miami Marlins6
Winner: Miami Marlins · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-245
1.4082
Closing
-109
1.9174
Delta
-26.56%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1245
UUID6f4323df-7a6e-4e09-b770-3fe03ba50f74
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 18:56 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 23:30 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823854:2026-06-20T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3bd0bcaceaf88dddaa7ae52bb4127c699fc3592eb2daa0b5acbbffc4565a8532
Closing line-109 captured 2026-06-20 20:11 UTC
CLV delta-26.56%
Closing hash39c8e608d111d9c523b82c54a4f558e0dcc88dd00694a8d64d7b6f88e2022893
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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