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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7ac2649c

Trevor Story Over 0.5 Hits

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-200

CLV

+5.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.7% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +19.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: bc0210)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox4
Texas Rangers3
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-09-17
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+5.88%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11123
UUID0b87dbc1-5dcd-4b38-870a-936a29f3d40a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-17 21:19 UTC
Graded2026-09-18 03:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7ac2649c6b84e1bf9bbf1834ba4e0810be94363da386f09519c789bc4425edf7
Closing line-200 captured 2026-09-17 22:37 UTC
CLV delta+5.88%
Closing hash719d2fdbaa02a7ac8c8121c8b1566423f128020f75c32f7c638682be4d93e0e9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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