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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 59170389

Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 Assists

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-204

CLV

+8.02%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +11.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=9 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-0.9% vs league avg over 98 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-204-0.12 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-204
1.4902
Delta
+8.02%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1342
UUID94ffcaab-a303-4ba4-ae7c-4611920f191e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash59170389b8b4ec32f053905a0c10090881ea3cc39c0fbe7d19e870da891ab67c
Closing line-204 captured 2026-07-11 20:49 UTC
CLV delta+8.02%
Closing hash702099966c64b2a3d90084a03195478f1d5994d851f6398f638e2223e78b6242

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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